Public Policy Polling has just released the following.
Raleigh, N.C. – Robin Carnahan leads three possible Republican opponents in hypothetical 2010 Senate faceoffs, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. Carnahan leads Congressman Roy Blunt 45-44, former Senator Jim Talent 47-43, and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman 47-36. Carnahan also gets the best marks for favorability, with 45% of voters having a positive opinion of her and 36% viewing her unfavorably. Jim Talent’s numbers are similar at 45/39. Blunt has the only negative numbers of the quartet of candidates, at 40/43. Sarah Steelman is not as well known as the others, with 35% of respondents saying they have no opinion of her either way.
“If she runs, Robin Carnahan has to be considered the frontrunner for Missouri’s open Senate seat in 2010,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At the same time it’s also clear she won’t run away with it. Missouri has had some of the most c ompetitive elections in the country over the last decade, and this one could well join that
list of closely contested races.”It may seem curious that Blunt has negative favorables, yet comes closer to Carnahan than Talent does. Therein lies the benefit of being a Congressman. Roughly equal number of Democrats view Talent and Blunt favorably. But while the Democrats who have a positive opinion of Talent still support Carnahan in a contest with him, the Democrats who view Blunt favorably support him over the Secretary of State. Not surprisingly those folks are heavily concentrated in the southwestern part of the state that Blunt has represented in Congress for years. That’s the positive side of being able to
perform constituent services and the like.PPP surveyed 867 Missouri voters on January 10th and 11th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may produce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
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